By Lyndsy Pahl, Licensed Mortgage Broker · Serving British Columbia & Alberta · June 2026
It’s the question I’m asked more than any other: “Lyndsy, should I go variable or fixed?” There’s no single right answer — it depends on you — but the current moment gives us some useful signals to work with. Let’s break it down in plain language.
Where rates stand right now
On June 10, 2026, the Bank of Canada held its policy interest rate at 2.25%. That’s now five meetings in a row with no change, going back to the last cut in October 2025. In other words, the Bank has moved from cutting to a steady, wait-and-see stance.
Why the pause? The Bank has pointed to inflation ticking back up — partly from higher oil prices tied to conflict in the Middle East — while the economy continues to adjust to U.S. tariffs. Its current projection has inflation easing back toward the 2% target into 2027. The next scheduled rate announcement is July 15, 2026, and it comes with a fresh Monetary Policy Report, which tends to give us the clearest read on where things may head next.
How this affects the two types of mortgage
Here’s the part that actually matters for your payment:
- Variable-rate mortgages move with the lender’s prime rate, which follows the Bank of Canada’s policy rate. When the Bank holds, your variable rate holds too. When the Bank cuts, you benefit; when it hikes, your cost rises.
- Fixed-rate mortgages don’t track the policy rate directly. They’re tied more closely to bond yields, which reflect where markets expect rates to go in the future. That’s why fixed rates can move before the Bank acts.
What a “hold” environment tends to mean
A long pause like this one removes some of the drama from the variable-vs-fixed decision. With the Bank on hold, a variable rate isn’t climbing month to month the way it was during the hiking cycle — and if the Bank’s next move ends up being a cut, variable holders would be first to feel the relief. On the other hand, a fixed rate gives you certainty: the same payment every month, no matter what the Bank does, which is worth a great deal if a steady budget helps you sleep at night.
So which should you choose?
Honestly, it comes down to you, not the headlines. I’d ask you questions like:
- How would you feel if your payment changed partway through your term? Some people barely blink; others lose sleep.
- Are you planning to move, sell, or refinance before the term is up? That affects how penalties and flexibility play in.
- How tight is your monthly budget — do you need the certainty of a fixed payment to plan with confidence?
- What’s your read on where rates go from here, and how much do you want to bet on it?
There’s no prize for guessing the market perfectly. The right choice is the one that fits your life and lets you sleep at night.
Let’s figure it out together
This is exactly the kind of decision I love helping clients with, because the “best” answer is genuinely personal. I’ll walk you through the trade-offs, run the numbers for your situation, and shop multiple lenders so that whichever direction you choose, you’re getting strong terms. And it costs you nothing — the lender pays me once your mortgage is finalized.
Variable or fixed? Let’s talk it through. I’m your advocate, and I work for you — not the banks.
☎ (604) 762-0762 | ✉ lyndsy@theplacetomortgage.com
Apply online: r.mtg-app.com/lyndsypahl | mortgagewithlyndsy.com
This article reflects the Bank of Canada policy interest rate of 2.25% as announced on June 10, 2026, and conditions as of late June 2026. It’s general information for British Columbia and Alberta, not financial advice for your specific situation, and rates can change at any time. Reach out for guidance tailored to you.